The New AI Currency: Why Gas Turbines Are Sold Out (And How to Secure Power Now)
AI data center demand has created a critical shortage of gas turbines with 3+ year lead times. Learn why GE and Baker Hughes are sold out, and uncover the remaining strategies to secure power infrastructure.
Forget crypto. Forget NVIDIA H100 allocations. In the race to build out AI infrastructure, the new global currency is rotating metal.
If you are planning an AI data center today, your biggest bottleneck isn't land, fiber, or even GPUs. It's power generation. Specifically, the gas turbines required to run gigawatt-scale compute loads independent of strained utility grids.
The market reality is stark: turbine manufacturing capacity is completely tapped out. The window to secure hardware for deployments before 2028 is closing rapidly. Here is a breakdown of the current power crisis and the only remaining strategies for developers and enterprises to secure their energy future.
The 97 GW Hardware Gap
The numbers defining the current AI energy landscape are terrifying for anyone trying to enter the market late.
Currently, there are roughly 97 GW of planned gas AI data centers in the US pipeline. Yet, almost two-thirds of these projects still do not have a turbine manufacturer locked down.
This massive imbalance between demand and manufacturing supply has pushed turbine lead times out to 3+ years.
In this environment, traditional development strategies are dead. You cannot wait for a customer contract before securing power equipment. The new playbook is "hardware first." Whoever grabs turbine and genset supply deals right now holds all the leverage. Secure the hardware today, and you can name your price on customer contracts tomorrow.
But that strategy only works if you can actually find the hardware.
The Turbine Landscape: Who is Actually Available?
The market has consolidated around four key players delivering the turbines that matter for data center applications. However, the availability among these four varies drastically.
If you are just starting your procurement process now, here is the hard truth about the landscape.
The "Sold Out" Giants: GE Vernova & Baker Hughes
If you are hoping for massive, utility-scale deployments in the next 36 months, you are likely too late. The heaviest hitters in the industry are effectively booked solid.
GE Vernova (7HA / 9HA)
These are the monsters of the industry, perfect for 100MW+ deployments. Everyone wants them for massive hyperscale campuses. The reality? Good luck getting allocation. They are sold out for the foreseeable future.
Sold OutBaker Hughes (NovaLT / Frame-5)
These turbines hit the sweet spot for many data center designs (20-100MW) and have been winning deals left and right. But that success means their order book is full. They are incredibly difficult to pin down, with earliest deliveries pushing into 2027 and beyond.
2027+ DeliveryWhere the Opportunity Actually Lives: Speed and Agility
With GE and Baker Hughes effectively off the table for near-term projects, smart developers and enterprises are pivoting to solutions that offer speed or specialized use cases.
1. Siemens (Aeroderivative SGT)
If your mandate is to get megawatts live faster than anyone else, Siemens is your edge. Their aeroderivative SGT units operate in the 10-50MW range. While demand is high, their production model allows for faster deployment than the massive frame turbines. If speed to market is your primary KPI, this is where you look.
2. Caterpillar (G3520 / G3616)
This is the most overlooked opportunity in the current market. While hyperscalers fight over 100MW turbines, there is immense value in being "small and scrappy."
Caterpillar's G3520 and G3616 gensets (1-20MW range) are the perfect solution for the emerging "on-prem AI enterprise" story. Not every AI workload needs a 500MW campus. For enterprises building dedicated, on-premises AI compute infrastructure that needs reliable, independent power, Caterpillar is your lane.
The Window is Closing
The "hardware first" strategy is the only way to guarantee project viability in the AI era. The major manufacturers are sold out. The secondary options are filling up fast.
If you are thinking about securing power infrastructure, the time to act was yesterday. The time to lock a contract is now.